The Market as Sovereign: Capability Sovereignty and the Global Contest over Conversion in the Energy Transition
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21987144Palavras-chave:
capability sovereignty, conversion capacity, industrial policy, geoeconomics, energy transitionResumo
Why do some resource-rich states convert strategic endowments into developmental power while others remain trapped in extractive dependence? This article develops the concept of capability sovereignty—the institutional and infrastructural capacity to convert latent endowments into substantive freedoms on authored rather than rented terms—and renders it measurable as a four-component Capability Sovereignty Index (CSI), joining the developmental-state tradition, geoeconomics, and Sen’s capability approach. The CSI measures domestic value-added, value-chain position, R&D intensity, and institutional coherence for China, the United States, and Brazil from official and multilateral data. Resource abundance alone does not generate capability sovereignty; conversion capacity predicts developmental autonomy; industrial coordination predicts conversion. China outperforms the United States on conversion despite stronger American industrial-policy effort and innovation. The decisive twenty-first-century divide separates states that convert endowments into autonomy from those that rent it.
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