Environmental Management and Sustainable Tourism in Post-Pandemic Angola: The Tourism–Environment Crossing Index (ICTA) and the Space–Infrastructure–Communities Triangle as Predictive Decision-Support Models in Southern Africa

Resumo

Since the COVID-19 pandemic, Angola has undergone an accelerated transformation of its tourism economy, yet it still lacks analytical instruments capable of integrating, within a single decision-making framework, the tourism relevance and the environmental sensitivity of its territory. This article proposes three original contributions: (i) the Tourism-Environment Crossing Index (ICTA), which classifies Angola's 21 provinces into four decision quadrants; (ii) the Space–Infrastructure–Communities Triangle (EIC Triangle), a conceptual model for assessing tourism sustainability; and (iii) the Geo-Environmental Predictive Model of Angola (MPGA-25), which projects scenarios to 2030 based on a Composite Tourism Sustainability Index (ICST). A mixed-methods approach was adopted, combining official secondary data (MINTUR, MINAMB, UN Tourism), a survey of 412 respondents in four pilot destinations (Quiçama, Kalandula, Namibe -Iona and Luengue-Luiana), and GIS-based mapping. Results show that Angola doubled international arrivals in the 2022–2023 biennium (263,553 tourists), surpassing pre-pandemic levels; that Cuando, Namibe, Cabinda and Huíla concentrate the highest tourism–environment crossing risk (Quadrant I); and that satisfaction is markedly asymmetric across the EIC Triangle (Space = 4.5; Infrastructure = 2.9; Communities = 3.3, on a 1–5 scale). Under the transformative scenario, the ICST may reach 420 points by 2030 (2019 = 100). The article concludes with eight pathways uncovered during the research, including the Angolan Intergenerational Fund for Sustainable Tourism and digital twins of national parks contributions replicable across Southern Africa.